Project: CAREER: Predicting ecosystem metabolism of rocky intertidal communities in warming and acidifying oceans.

NSF Award Abstract:
This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2).

The devastating impacts of global warming and ocean acidification (OA) on rocky intertidal ecosystems are expected to increase as the oceans continue to warm and acidify. Further, loss of critical foundation species as a result of anthropogenic stressors lead to changes in local conditions that alter ecosystem functioning. While data exist on the physiological response of individual organisms to OA and warming in rocky systems, far less research has been conducted on community and ecosystem-scale metabolic responses. The proposed work provides a critical step in understanding how altered environmental conditions affect ecosystem functioning in rocky intertidal systems through the combination of controlled laboratory studies, field experiments, and a synthetic modeling approach integrating experimental results with pre-existing time-series data. The proposed work is focused on the overarching question: How does shifting environmental variability and loss of foundation species interact to affect ecosystem functioning in rocky intertidal communities? The PI is integrating research with ecological and quantitative educational opportunities including classroom and hands-on training in lab/field methods in marine ecology, and data science and coding bootcamps for undergraduate students. Importantly, these opportunities financially and educationally support traditionally underrepresented students at one of the largest minority-serving institutions in the country. This project provides support for intensive mentoring and training for 35 undergraduate students (25 in data science and 10 in field/lab science, all paid), 2-3 masters students, and hands-on marine ecology opportunities in the classroom (~125 students). In addition to formal education, the PI is collaborating with an artist-in-residence to communicate science to the broader public through interactive and immersive art installations in Los Angeles.

Because rocky intertidal systems provide important ecosystem services including food production, coastal protection, and tourism, it is critical to understand how warming (both air and ocean), acidification, and altered community states affect reef-scale ecosystem metabolism. While information exists on responses of a variety of individual intertidal taxa to temperature stress, ocean acidification, and habitat loss, there is notably less on the response of ecosystem metabolism (e.g. NEP and NEC) to these stressors. This proposed work is focused on a series of conceptual knowledge gaps and tests mechanisms through which different warming regimes, lowered pH, and community disturbance lead to altered community metabolism and ultimately affect ecosystem function. Specifically, this study: 1) Describes community thermal performance curves of multiple ecosystem functions under differing pH conditions in experimental mesocosms, 2) characterizes drivers of ecosystem functioning (e.g. Net Ecosystem Production [NEP] and Net Ecosystem Calcification [NEC]) in situ using natural changes in environmental variability before and after a disturbance, and 3) integrates 16 years of publicly available community composition and environmental time-series data with lab and field data to hindcast ecosystem metabolic rates and predict how ecosystem metabolism may change in the future.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.