Award: OCE-1115881

Award Title: Modeling the Effects of Heterogeneity in Water Quality on Cholera Disease Dynamics
Funding Source: NSF Division of Ocean Sciences (NSF OCE)
Program Manager: Michael E. Sieracki

Outcomes Report

Intellectual merit: This project has uncovered basic ways in which connectivity between communities and heterogeneity in local conditions for disease transmission influence disease spread on networks. In particular, findings from this project shed biological insight into how the placement of disease `hot spots' in a network affects the ability of disease to invade, illustrate how demographic covariates can be used to inform local transmission risk for cholera, and provide new approaches for devising efficient interventions for cholera such as deployment of the limited-supply oral cholera vaccine stockpile. We have additionally developed new techniques for parameter estimation and integrating waterborne disease models with data. Findings from working with cholera icidence reports and mobile phone data on human movements prompted development of models of the interplay between behavior and disease. Work from this project contributes to several different discplines, including ecology, epidemiology, mathematics, and network science, and illustrates the natural synergy between mathematics and the life sciences. Broader impacts: This project has practical implications for cholera interventions, including both prophylactic and reactive vaccination campaigns. We have worked with many different public health organizations over the course of this project, including Albert Schweitzer Hospital (Haiti), the Nigerian Minsitry of Health, and the World Health Organization, to study cholera dynamics in different regions and help improve preparation for and prevention of cholera outbreaks. This project has provided training for students ranging from high school to postdoctoral, studying fields from public health to computer science. Outreach included a six week Infection Game Club at Metro High School in Columbus, where students played a live action infection game, recorded data from the game, and subsequently learned about mathematical models of infectious disease through attempting to develop models consistent with their data. Last Modified: 10/08/2017 Submitted by: Joseph Tien

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NSF Research Results Report


People

Principal Investigator: Joseph Tien (Ohio State University)

Co-Principal Investigator: Marisa C Eisenberg

Co-Principal Investigator: David Norman Fisman